Handicap

Handicap as Arbitrage betting and Dutching has its own specific!

So in Arb, we cover all outcomes of some football events to balance winning  possibility: balance over expanding
In the Dutching  is the opposite case we reduce the same number to  an acceptable extent to balance

Handicap is accomplished not by expanding nor redacting, but  offsetting

In this method, the bookmaker set a fictitious odds  line  for two teams with the assumption that these new odds properly reflect the respective winning chances with a built-in profit margin for him

The core element in handicap is not a score, m:n, itself, but the score difference of both teams, m-n, and n-m

Important: the score could be made of goals, number of corners, yellow or red cards…

What is important are the margins, defined by the different divisions of handicap methods
If trough that margin m-n or n-m is negative handicap bet is losing
How so?
You will find it here!

Visual explanations of the handicap principle

Suppose that the fictional play ended with home victory- 3:1

Let’s analyze 2 cases:
a) handicap -1
b) handicap -2
for home team

case a)

3-1=+2  -> victory in normal bet [3-1]-1=+1 -> victory in this handicap

case b)

3-1=+2  -> victory in normal bet

[3-1]-2=0 -> play end up draw in this handicap

Handicap betting markets apply either a positive or negative handicap to each side
+ for underdog
– for favorite

Variations of Handicap betting:

The main division is on so-called European and Asian

• European:
  • handicap bet, EH
  • 3-way handicap betting, 3WH
  • no draw handicap betting, NDH
• Asian handicap
  • the full goal Asian Handicap, FGAH
  • the half goal Asian Handicap, HGAH
  • Quarter Goal Asian Handicap QGAH

EH, an example

WBA vs Chelsea
obviously, in this game, WBA is the underdog- so give him + value e.g. +1
Chelsea is the favorite so we give -1
In this play, WBA started with one goal in surplus, and Chelsea started the game with a negative goal

Say that the final score is WBA-Chelsea 3:3

first bet(on underdog):

WBA-Chelsea  3+1:3 = 4:3 =>    WBA is winner

second bet(on favorite):

WBA-Chelsea  3:3-1 = 3:2 =>    WBA is winner

Let’s observe this example from a margin point of view!

Score:3:3
Score difference: 3-3=0
If we bet on the underdog(first bet!) because of offset (+1!) new goal difference is (3-3)+1=1 in favor of the underdog, here: WBA

To generalize:
any draw result  with a handicap of -k / + k gives the Underdog a victory

3-way handicap betting, an example

Again WBA vs Chelsea
Home:+2
draw: handicap tie:- 1
Away:-2

Say the final score is 0:1, that means Chelsea accomplish 1 goal and conceive 0
first bet: H:+2
0+2:1 =2:1 so WBA won the game with 2:1 in the eye of the bookie

score difference position:
0-1=-1
[0-1]+2=1

second bet:
A:-2
0 : 1-2 = 0:-1 so the game ends up as 1:0 in the eye of the bookie
score difference position for the away team:
1-0=1
[1-0]-2=-1

score difference position for the away team:
1-0=1
[1-0]-2=-1

third bet:
draw: handicap tie:- 1(margin of victory)

The actual score is 0:1
-1(Chelsea!) means that you must subtract 1 goal from the actual score on side of favorite
In this case: 0:1 = 0:1-1 = 0:0 draw!
score difference position for the away team:

1-0=1
1-0-1=0 -> in the line of handicap play ended with 0 goal difference!

suppose we have the next final score: 2:3
Applying the same principle, we got: 2:3-1= 2:2 draw!
score difference position for the away team:

3-2=1
[3-2]-1=0

The latter examples are only for the purpose of explaining the principle.

Real handicaps lines cases are more complex to settle because they involve odds

No draw handicap betting, NDH

The way that no draw handicap match betting is set up, is by giving half handicaps to certain teams.
As an example as above suppose that you give handicap +1.5 on WBA
Say that the actual score is 1:2
Using the same principle will be obtained: 1+1.5 : 2 = 2.5 :2, so WBA won with 0.5 goal margin
score difference position for the home team:
1-2=-1
[1-2] +1,5=0.5

O handicap

This handicap is a special subspecies of NDH, namely, for both teams, the ‘advantage’ in goals is=0 or their deficit = 0

The underdog has +0 handicap, while the favorite has -0

If you bet on +0, this means that if the underdog wins, the bet is winning.
If the play ends a draw, the stake is returned!

The Full Goal Asian Handicap

it uses the whole number to give the underdog a head start and the favorite a disadvantage
As in E.H positive value is used for the weaker team(underdog), e.g. +1, +2, +3, and a negative value is used for the stronger team

There are three possible outcomes to the full goal Asian Handicap bet!
 You could win, you could lose or you could have your stake returned (void or push) depending on the outcome of the game

 -1 / +1 Asian Handicap  for  WBA vs Porstmouth

If you were to back WBA -1 AH at d.o(H)=1.78 then WBA must win more than one goal in order to you win the bet.
Discus score line:
1:0 ~ 1-1:0 0:0 draw and you’d have your stake returned
2:1 ~ 2-1:1 1:1 draw and you’d have your stake returned
3:2 ~ 3-1:2 2:2 draw and you’d have your stake returned
3:1 ~ 3-1:1 :2:1 win

If the game ends with a draw, then by -1/+1 H Portsmouth wins!

3:3 ~ 3:3+1( of cause if you bet on Portsmouth) 3:4 and you win

if you bet on WBA:

3:3 ~ 3-1:3 2:3 WBA lose and you lose too

Half Goal Asian Handicap

It uses half-goal increments to give the underdog a head start whilst disadvantaging the favorite

The weaker team is given a positive half-goal lead, e.g. +0.5, +1.5, +2.5, and the stronger side is given a negative disadvantage, e.g. -0.5, -1.5, -2.5

Because of that ‘half goal’,  the half-goal Asian Handicap has just two possible outcomes – either your bet wins or it loses. 

The void or push option in the full goal Asian Handicap is no longer present because a team is unable to score half a goal

Suppose you bet on WBA +1.5 at 2.5 (for purpose of explanation WBA in this instructive example plays the underdog role)

If play ends up  with 0:0 score line:

0+1.5:0 ~ 1.5:0 WBA win and you win yours 2.5*stake euros

If play ends with 0:1 score line, WBA loses but you win(!):

0:1 ~ 0+1.5:1  1.5 :1  WBA win with ½ goal advantage

On au contrary, if you bet on Portsmouth to win and in a real game it did, you lose a bet: if the score line is 0:1

0:1 ~ 0: 1-1.5  0:-0.5 (Portsmouth missed ½ for draw) which is same as 0.5:0

Quarter Goal Asian Handicap

It uses increments of a quarter to alter the start of the game.
The underdog receives a positive head start of a quarter, e.g. +0.25, +0.75, +1.25, whilst the favorite is given a negative quarter goal disadvantage, e.g. -0.25, -0.75, -1.25

QGAH can be written as a fraction (as above) or it can be written with two numbers, e.g. 0, +0.5 or 1.00, 1.50 double-digit version

(0+0.5)/2=0.25
(1+1.5)/2=1.25
etc.

To switch between the two methods – the single-digit version is simply the mean of the double-digit version.
For instance, -0.75 is the same as -0.50, -1.00 and +2.25 is the same as +2.00, +2.50
QGAH takes concepts from both the full-goal and half-goal Asian Handicap.
It does this by effectively splitting your stake into 2 equal parts so that half of the stake goes on the lower value and the other half goes on the higher value

There are four possible outcomes to your bet depending on which Asian Handicap you have chosen:
win, a loss, a half win, or a half loss.
A win would see both stakes of the bet win, a loss would see both stakes lose, a half win would see one half of the stake win and the other be a void (half stake returned), whilst a half loss would involve half the stake losing and the other being void (half stake returned).

QGAH, an example

WBA vs Portsmouth, QQAH -0.75/+0.75
Suppose you chose WBA -0.75 QGAH at odds 2
Let’s analyze with a different scoreline
WBA draw: 0:0

Here we deal with 2 handicaps:

-0.5  HGAH

 and

 -1 FGAH

In 1. case we got score line: -0.5:0   ~ 0: 0.5    WBA lose with ½ goal margin

In 2.case:                              -1:0 ~ 0:1            WBA lose with  goal margin

Well both of our bets are lost

score line: WBA -Portsmouth – 1:0
-0.5 HGAH
1-0.5:0 ~ 0.5:0 win with ½ stake

case: FGAH
1-1:0 draw void-> return ½ stake
For e.g. if the stake is 100

Various real-word handicap examples

Bet 365 gives to QoS a little advantage (- handicap!) I this fixture
Hm!

Let’s see the Scottish 1. league standings:

On the basis of current standings, I choose the handicap 0.0 +0.5 on the Alloa Athletics side

QGAH, real example

Handicap type detection:(0.0 +0.5)/2=0.25
So it is 0.25 QGAH , so our stake, say €100   will be split between the two €50 on 0.0(=0!) and €50 on +0.5

Meaning of 0.0:

If the play ends up draw,mean:0.0,1:1,2:2…,k:k because of:

0 handicaps you will be returned half stakes:€50
+0.5 handicaps, Alloa wins the game with 1/2 of the goal so you will win half of your stake which is multiplied by odds-€50*1.825= €91.25

In total, if draw you will get:50+91.26=€141.25
in profit that is:€41.25

Overround, bookie’s margin:1/2.025 +1/1.825-1=1.04177-1=4.177%

If the game ends up with the away team winning then because;

0 handicaps you will be returned half stakes*2.025,€50*2,025=101,250

+0.5 handicaps, Alloa wins the game, say 0:1,0:2, 1:2…..
offset is 0:1.5,0:2,5, 1:2.5, etc
you will win half of your stake which is multiplied by the odds
50*1.825=91.25

Total revenue:101.250+91.25=€192.5

Profit:€92.5

NDH(draw no bet) real example:

if Alloa wins, and you stake €100 on that outcome, you will receive 100*2.10=210

If you bet on the first point of the spread, QoS win, and QoS really win you will receive 100*1.66=166

Alternative handicap result:3 way betting

Start of spread:

Queen of South -3 @ 21

End of spread

Alloa +3 @ 1.05

middle of spread:

tie: +3 @ 13.00

If you bet on the start of the spread and the result is m:n then must be fulfilled for success:

m-3>n => m=n+3

so if Alloa gives say 2 goals, then QoS must give a minimum of 2+3=5 goals

If you pick the middle of the spread to bet then you must pay your’s attention

on the sign of offset!!

That is to say signs always direct to underdog or favorite
In this case on the underdog-Alloa

The real result let be m:n as in previous

Offset: m:n+3 and must be fulfilled(for draw!!):
m=n+3
so if QoS realize e.g. 3 goals(=m) then for draw outcome Alloa mustn’t give any goal

Real result:3:0, and with offset(+3):3:3